Uncertainty, scarcity, and fear compress our perspective. Our thinking gets narrower, our future shrinks, and we get trapped in short-term shit-cycles.
Remember the marshmallow experiment? In the 1960s, researchers found that children who delay gratification, resisting the temptation to eat one marshmallow now to get two later, do better in life. The study was originally hailed as proof of the importance of willpower.
In 2012, researchers ran a new version of the experiment. Before the test, the kids met with a researcher who either kept a promise, or broke one. Kids with a reliable researcher waited four times longer to eat a marshmallow.
Then, in 2018, a new study controlled for socio-economic status and found it accounted for most of the original effect. Poor kids don't trust there will be extra marshmallows in the future, so they grab what they can now. Shocker.
When uncertainty is high and trust is low, we don't put our eggs in baskets we can't reach. Investing, looking after our health, living our values, doing a good job, planning for the future, improving relationships, developing ourselves, helping others, and unfucking broken systems are all long-game moves. They depend on two things: trust in others, and hope for the future.
When we have those things, we make bigger bets and expand our individual and collective possibilities. But scared people play small.
Short-term shit-cycles shrink our future, and the more power you have, the more responsible you are for that shrinkage. The kids had it worked out: if you can't rely on the people in charge, you'd better grab what you can now.
The fish rots from the head.
A few months ago, the New Zealand government announced it would cut 8,700 public service jobs (14% of the workforce) by 2029, with budget cuts to follow. Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche backs the move: "If it was my business and my money, this is what I would do." He also admits, "We have tried this before with very limited success." Long-term capacity be damned. Why bother waiting for a second marshmallow?
Short-term thinking borrows from the future. This is bad for our personal lives, terrible for our workplaces - and utter garbage for a country or community. Playing small sucks at scale.
Til next week,
AM